How I'd Fix the World Cup Group Stage: Eight Groups of Six, and Why Every Game Would Matter
In my big World Cup write-up I said the 48-team format was better than I expected, but that the problems people predicted still showed up, mostly around third place. This is where I actually lay out how I’d fix it. There’s even a simulator you can play with, built as part of the Worth the 90 project.
The short version: keep 48 teams, but restructure the group stage so qualification is harder, dead rubbers mostly disappear, and strong teams have to play each other early.
The structure
- 48 teams, split into 8 groups of 6.
- Three pots of 16 by FIFA ranking: Pot A (1 to 16), Pot B (17 to 32), Pot C (33 to 48). Every group gets two teams from each pot.
- Even though there are six teams in a group, you still only play three games, one against a team from each pot. So a Pot A side plays the other Pot A team, one of the two Pot B teams, and one of the two Pot C teams.
- After three games the six teams go into one table. First place goes straight to the last 16. Second and third go into a playoff round for the remaining knockout spots. Fourth, fifth and sixth are out.
So only 24 of 48 teams survive the group, instead of 32. Half the field goes home immediately. And it’s only about eight fewer games than the current 104, so you’re barely cutting anything, you’re just adding tension.
The full breakdown, including how the playoff round and the knockout bracket are seeded, is in the simulator: Alternative World Cup Format Simulator.
Why I think it works
Third place stops being a waiting game. The single worst thing about the current format is teams finishing their group early and then sitting around for a week to find out whether a result somewhere else sends them home. Here, qualification is settled inside your own group. Top three, you’re through. Fourth or lower, you’re out. You know your fate the moment your group finishes.
Strong teams have to play each other. Because every group has two Pot A teams and they’re guaranteed to meet, you get a genuine heavyweight fixture in every single group. No more top seeds tiptoeing through a soft group and only running into a real side in the last 16.
First place is worth fighting for. Winning the group skips the playoff entirely. Second and third still survive but have to win an extra knockout to reach the last 16. That gap between first and second is huge, which means nobody can afford to coast, and it becomes genuinely hard to guarantee top spot.
Smaller teams get a real route. Because you also play a team from your own pot, a lower-ranked side isn’t just queuing up to be beaten by giants. It has winnable games against teams at its own level where it can actually rack up points and climb the table. That makes their games matter instead of being formalities.
Put all of that together and basically every game in the group carries weight. That’s the whole point.
The one big drawback
I’m not going to pretend it’s perfect. The real problem is the last round of group games.
With eight groups, to keep it fair the final games in each group should kick off simultaneously, the way the current format does it on the last matchday. That means up to three games at the same time. It doesn’t reduce the number of games, but it does mean more of them clash, and I can see why that annoys fans who then have to split their attention.
But honestly? I love that. The final Champions League group-stage night, where the broadcast bounces between grounds and you’re tracking permutations across six games at once, is one of the best nights of the season for a football fan. Imagine eight of those, spread across three or four days of a World Cup. That’s not a bug to me, that’s a highlight.
What it would have looked like
The best way to show it is to map real teams from this tournament into six-team groups and see how it plays out. These are worked examples. Where the games actually happened this World Cup I’ve kept the real outcomes, and the rest is filled in to show the mechanics.
The England group
Take England’s real group, England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama, and add two more to make six.
- Pot A: England, Croatia
- Pot B: Ghana, Japan
- Pot C: Panama, Haiti
England still play their three actual opponents, Croatia, Ghana and Panama, and get the same results: a win over Croatia, a grind past Ghana, an unconvincing job on Panama. Three wins, top of the group, straight into the last 16.
Croatia take second and drop into the playoff. Japan edge Ghana for third and also go to the playoff. Ghana, a side that pushed England hard, finishes fourth and goes home. Panama and Haiti prop up the table.
| Pos | Team | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | Direct to last 16 |
| 2 | Croatia | Playoff |
| 3 | Japan | Playoff |
| 4 | Ghana | Out |
| 5 | Panama | Out |
| 6 | Haiti | Out |
The point: England breeze through and get a bye, but a decent Ghana side is gone at the group stage. That kind of jeopardy just doesn’t exist right now.
The Argentina and USA group
Now one built around the hosts, with Argentina dropped in.
- Pot A: Argentina, USA
- Pot B: Turkey, Canada
- Pot C: Iran, Australia
The headline is Argentina vs USA in the group stage, Messi playing a glamour tie in front of a home crowd instead of that only being possible in a final. Argentina do what they did all tournament and win the group comfortably for a direct spot. The USA, even as a decent host side, finish second and have to go through a playoff. Turkey, who bring real energy, take third and join them. Canada, Iran, who I thought were unlucky all tournament, and Australia miss out.
| Pos | Team | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | Direct to last 16 |
| 2 | USA | Playoff |
| 3 | Turkey | Playoff |
| 4 | Canada | Out |
| 5 | Iran | Out |
| 6 | Australia | Out |
The Spain and France group
This is the one that really sells it. Put the two best teams in the tournament in the same group.
- Pot A: Spain, France
- Pot B: Senegal, Uruguay
- Pot C: Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia
Spain keep their real opponents from this World Cup in Cape Verde and Uruguay, France keep Senegal, and the two of them meet head to head. Both are genuine title contenders, and one of them is going to finish second and be dumped into a playoff. That’s the whole idea: you can’t buy a soft group, and even Spain or France can’t guarantee they avoid the extra round.
| Pos | Team | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | Direct to last 16 |
| 2 | Spain | Playoff |
| 3 | Senegal | Playoff |
| 4 | Uruguay | Out |
| 5 | Cape Verde | Out |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia | Out |
A title favourite going into a playoff after the group stage sounds harsh. That’s exactly why I like it.
Have a go yourself
That’s the case for it. Rather than take my word, you can build your own groups and run the whole thing in the simulator: Alternative World Cup Format Simulator. It’s part of the Worth the 90 project, which also scores every match for how good it actually was, spoiler-free: Worth the 90.