My 2026 World Cup So Far: The Best, the Boring, and Who I Back to Win It

We’re at the quarterfinals, so I wanted to get my takes down while it’s all fresh. Who’s impressed me, who hasn’t, what I think of the whole tournament, and how I see the rest of it going. Fair warning up front: I’m an Argentina fan and a massive Messi backer, so I’m biased, and I’ll flag it whenever it’s colouring my judgement.

My take on the quarterfinalists

I’m going to go through all eight, starting with the four I actually back to win it, then working down. The four favourites are clear, and after them it drops off.

France have been the best team by far. They’ve shown the best displays, and they had a genuinely hard group. You can see that in the fact that both Norway and Senegal came out of it and Norway went all the way to the quarters. France beat Sweden really comfortably in the last 32, then had to fight against Paraguay and only won 1-0 from a penalty, but that game doesn’t change my opinion at all. Paraguay just found a way to drag them into a scrap. France are the best team here, full stop.
Spain have been all right, and on paper they probably just edge above Argentina in terms of who I’d back to win it. They didn’t force it in the group stage. Poor start with the 0-0 against Cape Verde, but Cape Verde ended up being a good side so it wasn’t as big a shock as it looked at the time. Solid win over Saudi Arabia, though that was never a real test, and they didn’t push too hard against Uruguay. The Austria performance was good, not as convincing as France were against similar opposition, and then they beat Portugal 1-0, which showed real quality but was not fun to watch.
Argentina have been the most interesting team in the tournament for me, and not just because they’re my team. Even in the group stage, where they were dominating and winning comfortably, the fact that Messi played so well and scored so many of the goals made it gripping. Honestly, I thought Messi was a bit washed. I didn’t think he could come back and be this good, and I think he shocked everyone. The level was insane. Then in the knockouts, Cape Verde and Egypt were the two best games of the whole World Cup so far for drama, both won in comebacks. So they surprised me by being better than expected in the group and a bit less convincing than expected in the knockouts, but no team has been more watchable. If I’m honest with myself: on paper Spain edge Argentina, but my gut says if the two played each other, Argentina would edge it. And as a Messi fan, Argentina have been the better team for me personally.
England are a comfortable fourth. They’re the team that’s played to the level of their opponents. They were excellent against Croatia in the group, one of the best games of the tournament, then struggled against Ghana and weren’t convincing against Panama. But the Mexico game was something else. They played really well, fought like mad, and had to defend an advantage down to 10 men for a big chunk of it. Mexico probably dominated the whole match, but the quality England showed and the way they approached it was really good. Winning 3-2 at altitude in Mexico City with 10 men is a proper result.
Norway have had an insane run. I’d genuinely argue they’ve had a better World Cup than England so far, even if I still back England to beat them. They knocked out Brazil, Haaland scored both goals, and they bring so much to the tournament: the Viking stuff, unbelievable fans, nice kits, real character. Their games against Senegal, Brazil and France were all brilliant to watch. This is the furthest they’ve ever been and I love it.
Switzerland I find hard to care about. They qualified past Colombia on penalties in a 0-0 and basically tiptoed into the quarters in total silence. Very tame football. They might give Argentina a game, but only because Argentina have been shaky against smaller sides, not because Switzerland are actually interesting.
Morocco are a great team who’ve just been handed a brutal draw. If they were playing any of the other three, I’d be tipping them, and I’d probably even make them favourites against England. But I can’t see them beating France, who have too much quality. I reckon they go the way Senegal and Norway did against France, which is a real shame, because on the other side of the bracket they’d have had a genuine shot at the semis. Their coach deserves credit for back-to-back quarterfinals, that’s a huge achievement. I do wish I liked them a bit more, and how they won the last Africa Cup of Nations on appeal still doesn’t sit quite right with me.
Belgium have been fine, similar to Switzerland but with more interesting games. Very dominant against the USA, though I think they got a bit lucky there, since they were the first proper team that the US faced. And I’m still fuming at them for going past Senegal. Senegal dominated that game for 80 minutes, had an insane match, and I genuinely do not know what happened. Belgium came back from nowhere in extra time and didn’t look like winning at all. Incredible from them, but I had a huge soft spot for Senegal, so I’m annoyed Belgium are still here. They can give Spain a game, but they’re nowhere near good enough in the squad to win it.

The teams I wish had gone further

Here’s my one real gripe with the last eight. I’m not a fan of the smaller European sides, your Belgiums and Switzerlands, that don’t bring anything beyond a result. Norway are the exception because they’ve got a whole identity and colour to them. What I’d love is to see more teams from Africa, South America and Asia go deep, because that’s what makes a World Cup special.

Teams I was most looking forward to and would swap in for Switzerland and Belgium in a heartbeat: South Korea (started so well with the win over Czechia and then fell apart, which was gutting after how fun they were last time), Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Japan and Australia. I never warmed to the USA given the whole Trump backdrop, but Canada and Mexico I really liked, and having Mexico host and win in front of their own crowd was great.

I felt really bad for Iran. They did really well, and I think the political situation over there clearly weighed on them, but they played well considering everything, and they were unlucky not to go through. Ecuador are another I wish had gone further. They didn’t have a good game against Mexico, so fair enough, they didn’t do enough to deserve to qualify, but they’re exactly the kind of team that brings colour to a World Cup.

And the African teams were unreal. Nearly every one of them got out of the group, which is a massive statement for the continent, and I think they only get better from here. Cape Verde in particular were a joy, and they got unlucky drawing Argentina, another side that brings a lot of colour.

The draw also robbed us of some dream games. England v Brazil in the quarters would have been a game for the ages, something people would remember for years, and instead it’s England v Norway, which will be nice but forgotten. Brazil v Japan meeting so early was a shame too, I’d have loved both to go further. And I wasn’t thrilled with Paraguay reaching France. I’d have taken France v Germany instead, purely because Paraguay bring aggresion rather than excitement, and I wanted France properly tested by a bigger team.

The Ronaldo problem

I’ll say it plainly: I’m not a big fan of Ronaldo, and I’m probably biased because I back Messi so hard in that debate. I do think he’s one of the greatest to ever play, but Messi is objectively the better player, and this tournament was a good example of why.

Before the World Cup, loads of podcasts were making the case that Ronaldo doesn’t help the team. Roberto Martinez’s argument was the opposite, that Ronaldo draws the opponent’s attention, brings energy, and is still one of the best finishers on the planet, so you might as well use him. For me there was just too much noise around him, and it wasn’t good noise. Portugal have an incredible squad, I genuinely think objectively the best midfield at the World Cup, and they didn’t show it at all. Ronaldo being up top was a big part of that.

He was okay. Just okay. And with that much noise around you, okay isn’t enough. You have to be so much better than okay. What I wanted was for him to play a role like Neymar did, coming on when the team needs a spark and something has to change. He did come on against Norway, it didn’t work out, but that’s the approach he should have had. I think Gonzalo Ramos isn’t in his best form, but he’d have been a better starting striker, and I honestly believe Portugal would have had a better World Cup starting Ramos with Ronaldo as the impact sub. I know it doesn’t work like that, and I know I’m biased, but that’s my take. His World Cup era is over now, and it ended pretty quietly.

Portugal and Croatia

What everyone expected from Portugal basically happened. They went out earlier than they wanted. They got unlucky with the draw, running into Spain, but the reason they were even in that spot is that they didn’t win their group. And they didn’t lose the group by getting beaten, they lost it because they couldn’t put Congo or Colombia away and drew both. So there’s no real excuse there.

Croatia I subjectively can’t stand, and I know that’s unfair. They’ve been a huge presence at the last couple of World Cups without ever being much fun to watch. The main reason I hold a grudge is 2022. I thought Brazil and Argentina were the two best teams that year on paper, and Brazil v Argentina in a semifinal would have been one of the best games I’d ever have watched. Croatia knocking Brazil out on penalties and then losing to Argentina was the most anti-climactic outcome possible, and I’ve never quite forgiven them for it. They’ve got a really ageing squad now. They played some interesting football, the Portugal game they lost was a good one, but it’s time for a generational reset. Maybe in a few years they’ll have a young, exciting side. For now I’m just sick of them.

The Balogun mess

My single biggest disappointment about this World Cup, in terms of things that actually happened, is the Folarin Balogun situation. He picked up a red card and the automatic one-game ban that comes with it, and then it was absolutely clear that Trump made a call to FIFA and they folded and lifted it for him. It’s incredibly annoying, and a lot of people made really good points about how it hurts the integrity of the game. Once you do that, where does it end? Can you now go back and undo every red card that decided a knockout tie?

To be fair to the Americans, up until that point they’d mostly kept the politics out of it. There were other bad moments around fans and players from Iran, and a referee who couldn’t make it, but those weren’t really Trump. He’d been front and centre before the tournament, then went quiet during it, didn’t turn up to games or make statements, and then out of nowhere he came in and made himself the main character, as he always does. His declaration about it was disgraceful, and it genuinely hurt the World Cup.

Refereeing, VAR and hydration breaks

The refereeing has been okay overall. The Mexico v England game in particular was really well managed, bar maybe the free kick Mexico scored from. That was a hard, hard game to control and the ref did well.

VAR I don’t mind. The interventions have been fine on length compared to what we’re used to. I actually like the throw-in and goal-kick counts, and the countdowns for keepers releasing the ball. The corner checks don’t bother me.

Hydration breaks are where I’ve got a proper opinion.

People talk about them like they never existed, but they’ve always been a thing. In Romanian football, midday summer fixtures get one whenever the ref decides it’s too hot, and that’s exactly how it should work: the referee’s call, based on the actual conditions.
The problem is how they’ve been applied here. A hydration break basically happens anyway every time there’s a two-minute injury or a VAR check, everyone gets a drink. So having a scheduled one right after a moment like that, say the 20th minute after someone’s just been down injured, is ridiculous, and it’s a clear sign these are being done for advertising rather than genuine concern for the players.
From a fan’s point of view they’re not bad at all, I’ll admit. It solves the eternal problem of when to go to the toilet or grab a drink without missing anything. Awesome, hydration break, off I go.
But they break the game in a way football never had and never needed. They kill momentum and let managers change and communicate strategy mid-flow. That basically drags the concept of quarters into football, and I don’t think that’s a valuable addition at all.

Stadiums, atmosphere and kickoff times

Big fan of the stadiums. They look incredible on TV and bring a completely different energy from European football. The atmosphere’s been good, the grounds look full, and while I know there’ve been ticket-price controversies I wasn’t close enough to the process to say much beyond it clearly being expensive. What I love most is that they’re using stadiums that already exist rather than building new ones just for the tournament, the way Qatar did. That’s a huge plus.

One thing I keep coming back to: the Estadio Azteca deserved a semifinal or a final. Having it at this World Cup brought so much, and the atmosphere was electric. The games there, like Mexico against England, were absolutely insane. It’s a massive shame that the last match played there was a last-16 tie. I really wish the final, or at least a semi, had been at the Azteca, because I think it would have brought so much to the competition.

On kickoff times, I get the complaints but I don’t fully agree. There’ve been plenty of games at sensible hours, 5pm, 6pm, 8 to 10pm, and no games during actual working hours here. Yes, there’ve been some 2am and 5am kickoffs that are genuinely annoying, but the real reason times got worse is simply that there are so many more games in this format. And that’s the beauty of the World Cup: you can’t have convenient times unless it’s in a friendly time zone. World Cups in South Korea, Japan, Brazil, the US, or somewhere like Australia are exactly what makes the tournament unique, and you have to embrace it. Just put the replay on in the morning, dodge the spoilers, and you’re fine. And if you want to know which game is actually worth putting on, shameless plug: I built a whole app for exactly that, Worth the 90, which scores every match on how good it was without giving away the result.

The format

The 48-team format was better than I expected, and one thing I loved was how many smaller countries it let in. Watching teams that don’t usually make a World Cup, sides like Cape Verde, and seeing so many of them make a good impression, was really nice.

The problems people predicted did still show up, though, mostly around third place. Teams that played their final group games early had no idea how hard to push, while teams playing at the end knew exactly what they needed, and whether you got through often came down to how hard your group was rather than anything you could control. The dynamic of one group shouldn’t decide qualification for another.

I’ve got a full alternative, borrowing from the new Champions League format, that I think fixes most of this. Rather than cram it all in here, I’ve written it up properly in its own article, with worked examples and a simulator you can play with: How I’d Fix the World Cup Group Stage.

The players and the best games

This World Cup has been more fun for the individual battles. Even without playing each other, Kane, Mbappe, Messi and Haaland have had this ongoing scrap for the Golden Boot, scoring all over the place, and it’s been great to watch. Big players showing up for the sport like that brings so much colour. Messi rolling back the years as a superstar again, Haaland scoring from anywhere, both of them huge characters with big personalities and interviews. It would have been a much more boring tournament without them.

The best games so far, and funnily enough they all finished 3-2:

Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde
Argentina 3-2 Egypt
Belgium 3-2 Senegal
Mexico 2-3 England

Objectively those were the four best matches of the tournament, all drama, all last-minute swings. The Argentina comebacks especially were absolutely insane, nobody saw them coming. Special mentions to England v Croatia, France’s group games, and Portugal v Croatia, which were all really good watches too.

The disappointments

Germany were probably the single biggest letdown of the whole tournament.
Portugal didn’t show much given their quality, as covered above.
Scotland were the most boring team to watch, and a huge disappointment on results too. I’ll cut them some slack for drawing Morocco and Brazil in tough spots, but if you don’t reach the knockouts and you’re not even playing expansive football, you’re a disappointment. Beating Haiti 1-0 doesn’t save it.
Uruguay underwhelmed massively. I expected far more.
Czechia were awful to watch, all set pieces and physicality.
Colombia showed some nice combination play that never quite showed up on the scoreline. More boring than I hoped, but I still enjoyed them and backed them against Switzerland. They deserved more.
Brazil were more unlucky than disappointing. It’s a shame to see them go out so early, and I think they approached the Norway game the wrong way and got exploited for it. But honestly, the setup they had this year and their struggles over the past couple of seasons never really pointed to a better World Cup, so what happened to them was pretty expected. And even if they had gone further, I don’t think they’d have got past England, who looked the much stronger side between the two.
Japan were lovely to watch and desperately unlucky to draw Brazil so early out of a tough group.
Netherlands were fine. I don’t personally like them, but the Orange fans and kits bring something, and losing to Morocco again was a rough draw for both.
Turkey had a similar story to some of the flops, losing games they were favourites in, but they were far more fun, racking up something like 60 shots without scorung and beating the US. They bring a nice energy, which counts for a lot with me.

My quarterfinal predictions

I think all four favourites win, but some will have easy nights and some will have to grind, and it’s genuinely hard to call which is which.

France beat Morocco. Comfortable but not expansive. I can see Morocco giving them a good first half and then not keeping up in the second.
England v Norway is the tightest of the four. England play well but it’s close, similar in feel to their Mexico game and to Norway’s game against Brazil. I don’t want to say 3-2 again, but it’s that kind of vibe, with England a step up from Brazil. Something like a 2-1.
Spain beat Belgium, probably comfortably, very much like their Portugal game. Score early, 1-0 or so, and Belgium don’t put up much of a fight.
Argentina beat Switzerland comfortably. I see it looking like Argentina v Croatia four years ago, or their Austria game this time. I’ll say 3-0, a more comfortable win than France or Spain get.

That last one is me being biased, and I’m hoping Argentina come back into it and match the level France and Spain have shown by the time we get to the semis.

Semis and the final: heart over head

I don’t want to fully call the semis before we’re there, but some early thoughts:

France v Spain. I would love Spain to win this and put on a proper, expansive game for the fans of good football. But I think France win it in a very European, very tactical, very close match, 1-0 or 2-1, not really the kind of game we want from a World Cup. Similar to Spain v Portugal.
Argentina v England. This is the one I have no idea how to predict. I think it becomes what the Mexico game was, and what a Brazil v England quarter would have been remembered as. High-scoring, Argentina with that unique intense style where they just go for it and look unstoppable, and England trying to match it. I think it goes to penalties, and I’ll say Argentina come through.

So that gives me Argentina v France in the final again. The last one was the best World Cup game I’ve ever watched, with France v Argentina eight years before that a close second. I think they’d put up an incredible fight again. And going with my heart rather than my head, I’ll say Argentina win it, whether that’s in open play, extra time, or penalties.

The quarters might not be as wild as we’d hope, but the back half of this bracket looks really, really promising.