The Quarters Were Good. The Semis Will Be Even Better

We’ve got our four semifinalists, and this is the first time since 2006 that the top four favourites have all made it this far. I actually quite like the pattern this World Cup has followed: loads of nice surprises and likeable teams scattered through the group stage and the early knockouts, and then by the time you get to the semifinal, it’s the four best teams left standing regardless.

It also helped that FIFA seeded this bracket tennis-style, keeping the top four ranked teams in separate pathways so Spain, Argentina, France and England couldn’t meet each other before the semis even if they all won their groups. So this final four isn’t really a coincidence, it’s built in by design, and I think it’s worked out well.

If I could pick my own version of this final four, I’d keep the big four exactly as they are: France, Spain, Argentina and England. But I’d want different opponents for some of them along the way. Norway can stay, no question, they were genuinely amazing this tournament and deserved every bit of their run. But I’d have loved to see Senegal and Mexico get further than they did. I think Morocco objectively deserved their quarterfinal spot more than most, but personally there were other teams I enjoyed watching more, and if I had to pick one it’d be Japan. Egypt, DR Congo and the Netherlands would all have made brilliant wildcards too.

I’ve already written up every team at this World Cup in full, group by group, so I won’t repeat all of that here. This one’s just about the four teams marching into the semis, and what’s coming next.

France 2-0 Morocco

France beat Morocco 2-0, and honestly, that’s about what was expected from this game. France didn’t need to do much more than they did, they just needed to be a bit more inspired than they were for large parts of it, and eventually they were. It actually felt like a pretty similar game to the semifinal four years ago, when these two also met at the 2022 World Cup and France won by the same scoreline. If anything it might have been a touch easier for France this time round. I do think Morocco could have done better, even against different opposition, but they weren’t unlucky to run into the best team left in the tournament at the quarterfinal stage.

Mbappe’s goal to break the deadlock was absolutely insane, that curling finish just after the hour mark. He’s been relentless all tournament, and Dembele doubling the lead not long after put it beyond doubt.

Spain 2-1 Belgium

Spain beat Belgium 2-1, and it was a better game than I expected. I thought Spain would cruise, but Belgium got a goal back through De Ketelaere and were still very much in it deep into the second half before Spain found a late winner, Merino nicking it off a goalkeeping error. Fair play to Spain, though, because so far this tournament they haven’t had to get themselves out of a single really difficult position, unlike pretty much every other team left in the competition. It’s actually mad that De Ketelaere’s goal was the first they’d conceded at the whole World Cup. Their defence has been spot on.

Individually they’ve had loads of brilliance from their best players rather than any real long spells of the free-flowing, expansive football we know they’re capable of. I think they were at a noticeably higher level at the Euros two years ago. They’ve done the job here without ever really needing to hit top gear, a bit like the way they ground out the Portugal game, and the Saudi Arabia game earlier in the tournament was really the only time we saw a proper glimpse of what this squad can actually do.

England 2-1 Norway (after extra time)

England beat Norway 2-1 after extra time, and this was one of the games of the tournament. Norway sat deep and pressed in patches, and one of those patches produced a genuinely gorgeous goal from Andreas Schjelderup, cutting in from the left and looping it over Pickford and in off the post. England bounced back before half time through Bellingham, created by Anthony Gordon, and then the second half turned into one of the more talked-about tactical stories of the whole tournament.

Thomas Tuchel started Noni Madueke ahead of Saka, which surprised a lot of people, presumably down to Saka’s Achilles not being able to sustain 90 minutes across the whole tournament. I think Madueke was a big downgrade going forward, and honestly it’s difficult to say whether his presence helped England defensively at all. It’s just as difficult to say whether Haaland simply had an off day, given how little he’s actually played this season, similar to the point about Stones being shaky for the same reason. Either way, England defended really well as a team to keep him quiet, and that’s not a small thing against a striker of that quality.

Extra time came down to squad depth. Reece James starting the tournament in midfield was one of the bigger surprises, before he went back to right back, which didn’t really work out either. But Morgan Rogers came on and was excellent, his long-range effort was parried into the path of Bellingham, who finished for his second of the game and sent England through. There were a couple of big refereeing moments too, Haaland’s foul at the corner that got Norway’s own goal chalked off, and the whole cable saga where the ball appeared to clip an overhead camera cable just before England’s equaliser and FIFA’s sensor data disagreed. Bit of an awkward one either way.

Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (after extra time)

Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 after extra time, and it was genuinely one of the most eventful games of the round. Argentina scored early through Mac Allister off a Messi corner, then did what Argentina do and dropped off, letting Switzerland back into it through a really good equaliser from Dan Ndoye.

Then came the red card, and it’s worth explaining properly because I was genuinely confused watching it live. Breel Embolo went down under a challenge from Leandro Paredes, the referee initially carded Paredes for the foul, and then VAR stepped in under the new “mistaken identity” rule and switched the card to a second yellow for Embolo instead, for simulation. I can picture exactly how that rule got written: someone in a meeting room going, if we ever give a yellow card to the wrong player, we should let VAR step in and fix it, because the net difference between a wrongly booked player and a correctly booked one is too big to just leave alone. Nobody in that room seems to have thought through the edge case where the “wrong player” ends up picking up a second yellow and getting sent off for it. In fairness to the officials, it did look like a clear dive from Embolo, so I can’t really defend him on that part.

Once Switzerland went down to ten men the momentum swung back to Argentina, though it still took until extra time for the second goal to arrive. It fits a pattern too, Argentina have been on the just-about side of most of the close decisions in this tournament. Julian Alvarez scored what’s been my goal of the tournament so far, a stunning strike from distance, and Lautaro Martinez added a third from a rebound soon after. It’s been a running theme all tournament: Argentina have put themselves in really difficult positions multiple times so far, but they’ve found a way out of every single one of them. However hard the situation, it feels like they’re going to make it work one way or another.

Semifinal One: France vs Spain

If there’s one team in the tournament that’s actually built to block France’s attack, it’s Spain. This is going to be a heavily tactical European affair with real Champions League energy, both managers obsessed with stopping the other side rather than unleashing their own. I can’t imagine Deschamps losing sleep over how to get Mbappe and Dembele on the ball, he’ll be far more focused on his own defence, and Spain will be thinking exactly the same way in reverse.

These two met two years ago in the Euro 2024 semifinal too, another genuine blockbuster on paper. But that was a tournament where France never really showed much attacking brilliance and struggled badly to create clear chances, they scored basically one goal from open play in the whole competition. This time they feel a lot more inspired going forward, so they’re going to be a much tougher nut for Spain to crack than they were back then.

This has the feel of a mini final. These have probably been the two best sides of the tournament so far, even if England and Argentina have arguably had similarly strong runs of their own. It’s genuinely hard to predict how open this will be. If Mbappe, Yamal, Dani Olmo and the rest all show up at once it could be a genuinely high scoring classic, but given the quality both teams have defensively, and how hard they’ll each work to nullify the other, I think it’s more likely we see something tighter, a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 type of game. I’d be surprised if we saw more than three goals combined.

Semifinal Two: England vs Argentina

This is the one that gives me chills just thinking about the history behind it, especially given these two haven’t met at a World Cup in 24 years. Even crazier, Messi has never actually played against England at all, the two countries haven’t met since 2005 when he was an 18 year old yet to make his mark, so a rivalry with this much weight behind it has genuinely never had its biggest player on the pitch for it until now. Wembley 1966, when Argentina’s Antonio Rattin was sent off and refused to leave the pitch for several minutes, requesting a translator because he didn’t understand the decision, a saga that’s a big part of why red and yellow cards were introduced a few years later (highlights). Then 1982 and the backdrop of the Falklands War, which still carries enormous tension between the two countries. You hear it every time Argentina play, in “Muchachos,” the song that’s become their unofficial anthem since 2022: “Por Malvinas, por El Diego, Por la última de Leo” - a lyric with so much emotional weight. That’s how much history is packed into that chant. Then 1986, which needs no introduction: Maradona’s Hand of God, followed minutes later by arguably the greatest solo goal in World Cup history (highlights). Then 1998, when David Beckham was sent off against Diego Simeone and England went out on penalties (highlights), and 2002, when Beckham got his redemption with a penalty won after a challenge from Mauricio Pochettino on Michael Owen, sending Argentina out at the group stage (highlights).

Looking back at all of those, every single one of them was marked by a controversial refereeing decision in some way. And it’s not just history either: if you look at the games both Argentina and England have actually played over the last couple of rounds, as opposed to France and Spain, both of their tournaments have repeatedly come down to controversial decisions and big dramatic moments rather than pure football. That’s going to add another dimension to this game on top of everything else, and I’d be genuinely surprised if this one doesn’t end up with a big moment decided by a refereeing call. That puts an immense amount of pressure on whoever’s got the whistle.

Whatever happens, this game is going to be remembered regardless. Bellingham’s had a really good tournament, so I think he’s going to try and really show up here, steal the show, be the main character of the game if he can. Argentina have reached back-to-back finals with essentially the same core group of players, just four years older, and they’ve gone to extra time in game after game this tournament. England making a final would be enormous given they haven’t done it since 1966, the exact tournament where they last played Argentina. I think England will try the same defensive approach that worked against Haaland here, and it’ll come down to how well Messi shows up, because when he’s on, he’s genuinely unplayable. Alvarez has been incredible too, and that goal against Switzerland is the best I’ve seen at this World Cup.

I also have to mention how disappointed I was in ITV’s interview with Tuchel and Bellingham after the Norway game. Tuchel made it clear, in more words, that he expected better from the team despite the result, which I actually agree with. But then putting that criticism directly to Bellingham on camera felt like poor journalism, more about creating drama than reporting. I think that Tuchel should’ve foreseen the fabricated drama and avoided it, but I guess England knew what they were getting when they appointed him. I really hope Bellingham and Tuchel have sorted that out privately, because it would be a shame for manufactured tension like that to actually affect the dressing room before a game this big.

As for a prediction, honestly I can’t call it. Both teams tend to play to the level of their opposition, which means nothing when they’re playing each other. Both are capable of a stinker, we’ve seen it from each of them this tournament, and both are capable of something special. Neither can afford that kind of day here. For the sake of drama, I’ll predict a draw with goals, going to penalties. Whatever happens, this is going to be insane to watch.

A quick note on the two semis as a pair: France vs Spain is going to be about who has the most raw quality on the pitch, a tactical arm-wrestle between two sides that rarely have a genuinely bad day. England vs Argentina is a completely different animal, two teams capable of brilliance and capable of falling apart, carrying eighty years of controversy and history into one match. Regardless of the results, both of these are going to be remembered as classics just because of the sheer amount of quality on the line.